Warrant market 06/23/2022: The phenomenon of differentiation appeared

 

At the end of the session on 22/06/2022, the whole market had 58 gainers, 45 losers and 18 unchanged stocks. Foreign investors remained net sellers with the total net sale of over 1.5 million shares.



I. CERTIFICATE MARKET MOVEMENT

At the end of the session on 22/06/2022, the market was strongly differentiated with 58 gainers, 45 losers and 18 unchanged stocks.



On the upside, the warrants HPG (HM: HPG) recovered after a series of plunging sessions with the popular green color of more than 20%. Besides, the bank warrant group also saw positive trade when many warrant codes ACB (HM: ACB), HDB (HM: HDB), MBB (HM: MBB), VPB (HM: VPB), TCB (HM). : TCB) increased by over 15%. Meanwhile, although STB (HM: STB) hit the ceiling, there were many warrants with poor trading.


On the other side, the warrant group VNM (HM: VNM) appeared an correction due to short-term profit-taking pressure. CVNM2203 decreased 25%, CVNM2201 decreased 21.21%, CVNM2204 decreased 18.18% ... In addition, the warranties FPT (HM: FPT), POW (HM: POW), MSN (HM: MSN), MWG (HM: MWG) also appeared many stocks fell deeply.



The market's trading volume today reached 37.3 million shares, an increase of 11.78%; trading value reached 28.1 billion dong, up 10.14% compared to the session on June 21, 2022. In which, CTCB2112 is the leading warrant code in the market in volume, CFPT2203 is the leading in transaction value.


The active liquidity of the market is still concentrated in warrants with maturity in July, August and October such as CPDR2202, CVIC2203, CPOW2201, CFPT2203, CACB2102, CVHM2204 ... Meanwhile, the liquidity in the Warrants due in September and December are still quite low.



Regarding foreign transactions, they continued to be net sellers with the total net sale of over 1.5 million shares. In which, CPOW2201 and CVRE2207 were the two warrants that were sold the most.

II. VALUATION OF RIGHTS

Based on the appropriate valuation method with the starting date of June 23, 2022, the reasonable price of warrants being traded on the market is shown as follows:


Note: The opportunity cost in the pricing model is adjusted to match the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill (government bills) will be replaced by the average deposit interest rates of major banks with the maturity adjustment to suit each warrants.



According to the above valuation, CNVL2203 and CPDR2201 are currently the two warrant codes with the most attractive valuation.


The higher effective gearing stocks are, the larger the up / down volatility of underlying securities will be. Currently, CNVL2203 and CPDR2201 are two warrant codes with the highest effective gearing ratio in the market at 12.38 and 10.16 times respectively.


Economic Analysis & Market Strategy, Vietstock Consulting Department

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